A new Zogby poll gives Jim Webb a solid 7-point lead over Sen. George ‘Macaca’ Allen (via Daily Kos). The poll has Webb at 50.4% to Allen’s 42.9% and was taken before the start of Webb’s TV ads.

Allen’s unfavorable rating increased from 23 percent to 31 percent between July and September… Webb’s support among black voters increased by 34%Webb’s support among black voters increased from 39 percent to 73 percent. “It’s pretty easy to draw a straight line from that to the ‘macaca,’ ” said Brad Coker, the managing director of the Mason-Dixon poll. [Link]

But a Mason-Dixon poll has Allen ahead by 4 points, 46% to 42%:

… 20 percent of likely voters still don’t recognize Webb’s name, down from 33 percent in July. [Link]

About half of Allen’s supporters disapproved of his macaca slur while half didn’t care:

Three percent said they would definitely not vote for Allen because of what he said. Eight percent said they were less likely to vote for him, 16 percent said they disapproved but would still support him and 28 percent said the comment was not so serious and they would vote for Allen. Ten percent were not sure and 37 percent said they wouldn’t vote for Allen even if he hadn’t made the gaffe. [Link]

The election is still mainly a referendum on the Iraq war on a straight party-line split. The independents will be key:

The new poll showed Webb favored by 83 percent of Democrats, up from 67 percent in July, while 5 percent of Democrats were for Allen… and 12 percent were undecided…

The survey showed Allen favored by 86 percent to 6 percent among Republican voters, up from 81 percent to 4 percent in late July, with 8 percent of GOP voters now undecided, down from 15 percent.

Among independents, Allen held a narrow 43 percent to 41 percent edge over Webb in the new survey, less than his 44 percent to 33 percent lead over Webb in the previous poll. The number of undecided independents fell from 23 percent to 16 percent. [Link]

Webb’s main challenge aside from fundraising is that he is not a classic politician:

Stiffly refusing to pander on the stump, Webb tends to ramble… “He doesn’t know how to give a speech. He seems incapable of comparison campaigning, much less negative campaigning…” Walking around a street fair… Webb had to be formally introduced to each voter… [Link]

He has an interesting background:

He charged that academy officials were promoting academics over physical toughness and wrote a defiant Washingtonian magazine article, “Women Can’t Fight,” after the Academy went coed in the late 1970s… he lost the Academy boxing championship to a fellow midshipman, a mauler named Oliver North, back in 1967…

His Vietnam roman à clef, “Fields of Fire,” was widely praised; among his books is a brilliant historical novel, “The Emperor’s General,” about Gen. Douglas MacArthur’s running of postwar Japan. [Link]

The race still seems a tossup to be decided by Allen’s much larger TV budget on one side vs. growth in the moderate North Virginia suburbs.